Bet And Wind

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Bet And Wind

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Recently they have relied more on domestic makers. Major international turbine makers have established manufacturing plants in China, but they are losing out to local firms.

According to data collected by the China Wind Energy Association, will be the first time that the installed capacity of Chinese-made turbines will exceed that of foreign ones.

The 3. That's great for China's wind-turbine late-comers, but is it good for the wind farms? Domestic turbines are especially unproductive when first set up, says Wu.

Because the technology is newer and less tested, Chinese turbines are also more likely to be shut down for maintenance, according to anecdotal evidence.

A turbine's average down time is a closely guarded trade secret. But Xiliang Zhang, director of Tsinghua University's Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy in Beijing, says he hears reports that domestic turbines are standing still while foreign models nearby are humming away.

But as the lifetime of a turbine averages 20 years, the more-productive foreign models would be better buys overall, says Wu. Representatives of two major Chinese turbine manufacturers did not return phone calls or e-mails requesting comments.

So why do wind-farm developers in China mostly choose domestic turbines? It is a controversial subject. But the bidding process is a tricky business and many in the industry assume an opaque policy of favouritism, especially considering that most of the wind-farm developers and domestic turbine-makers are state-owned enterprises.

Turbine quality is one problem; finding the best turbine for the available wind is another. Every turbine has a 'load envelope' that defines roughly what wind speed, turbulence, wind shear and other conditions it will function best in.

Some turbines work better for wind that comes in short bursts whereas others work better with long consistent spells of low wind.

Poorly chosen turbines will be more likely to break down. A turbine with a wide blade can catch low winds but could be destroyed by typhoons.

If turbines are poorly chosen for a site, their efficiency will plummet. But until now, he says, Chinese developers have too often relied on inadequate wind data.

China is now trying to address this problem. By June, it will finish installing masts to measure wind-energy resources in various regions throughout China.

The masts will stand 70 metres, metres or metres tall, to match the height of the turbines. Yang will analyse the data provided by the masts.

The plan has its sceptics. Because wind can vary greatly over short distances, even this survey of broad areas of wind flow will be inadequate and 'micrositing' data will still be necessary from the specific regions where the turbines are planned, says Soares.

More scepticism is aimed at a proposed secondary use of the data — to create new standards for turbine design specifically based on Chinese weather.

Given China's plans to make five huge mega-bases, the number of turbines in its future is staggering. By , the Gansu project alone will boast 10, turbines with a combined capacity of 12 gigawatts.

China's four other megabases — in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hebei and the Shanghai—Jiangsu region — will total 60 gigawatts. But to make use of all that energy, China's wind hopefuls must tackle an even more intractable problem — the electricity grid.

China's energy supply has been hamstrung by a fragmented and underdeveloped grid system that makes it difficult to get energy from coal-rich rural areas to the cities on the east coast.

Wind has the same problem: it is produced mostly in sparsely populated regions that cannot use all that energy. The problem is compounded by the unreliability of a power source that is based on the weather.

It changes too fast," says Qin. Steve Sawyer, secretary-general of the Brussels-based Global Wind Energy Council, says that other countries, particularly the United States, have struggled with their grids.

China's rapid expansion has caused delays down the line. Turbines often have to sit idle — on average for four months — before they get hooked up to the grid.

The backlog is huge. Of the 5. Getting connected is just the first hurdle. Many grids are simply too puny to carry all the electricity being made.

At peak production times, turbines often have to shut down so as not to overload the electrical networks. Newer turbines can alter the angle of their blades to miss the wind, and will slow to a halt.

The only loss is the energy. For older turbines, the operator has to slam on the brakes. Turbines in China wear through their brakes at remarkable speeds, says Meyer.

Elsewhere, the brakes are usually used "once a month or less, but in China they're using it every four days", he says.

The delays and losses could drive people away from wind power, says Qin. So why hasn't the Chinese government's legendary ability to get things done kicked in.

According to a December report by New Energy Finance, China's National Development and Reform Commission — the body that oversees national economic and social development — is concerned about the "lack of supervision in China's rapid wind-power growth", especially when it comes to the grid.

But the government is afraid to do anything that would raise prices, says Zhang. The problem is low demand for the expensive energy. But the government hasn't brought itself to do that.

It's easier to let them stick with coal. Help might be on the way. The megabases have an economy of scale that will make them more attractive targets for grid developers.

Regional projects will also help. In November this year, Gansu will put 20 billion renminbi into its grid to support its megabase, and Inner Mongolia, also set to get a megabase, plans to add 30 billion renminbi to its grid operations by These will feed into a scheduled upgrade from kilovolts to kilovolts for a transmission line running from Xinjiang in the northwest, through Gansu, to the eastern metropolises.

Of course, hooking up wind turbines might not be the main thing on grid developers' minds. Wind energy is currently only a drop in the bucket in China's gigawatt energy supply.

In , wind accounted for just 0. But if the five megabases go as planned, their combined capacity would provide more electricity than the controversial Three Gorges dam, even considering the dam's much higher capacity factor.

Some estimates note a potential of — gigawatts by to For now, the Chinese government has thrown its considerable weight into exploiting this resource.

But unless some dramatic changes are made soon, China's plans for wind energy might get blown far off course. See Editorial, page American Wind Energy Association.

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All power installations have a 'capacity factor', which is calculated by dividing the energy actually produced by what the installations could maximally generate.

Wind experts blame several factors, starting with the turbines themselves. When wind-farm developers began gearing up around , they imported turbines from established overseas manufacturers.

Recently they have relied more on domestic makers. Major international turbine makers have established manufacturing plants in China, but they are losing out to local firms.

According to data collected by the China Wind Energy Association, will be the first time that the installed capacity of Chinese-made turbines will exceed that of foreign ones.

The 3. That's great for China's wind-turbine late-comers, but is it good for the wind farms? Domestic turbines are especially unproductive when first set up, says Wu.

Because the technology is newer and less tested, Chinese turbines are also more likely to be shut down for maintenance, according to anecdotal evidence.

A turbine's average down time is a closely guarded trade secret. But Xiliang Zhang, director of Tsinghua University's Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy in Beijing, says he hears reports that domestic turbines are standing still while foreign models nearby are humming away.

But as the lifetime of a turbine averages 20 years, the more-productive foreign models would be better buys overall, says Wu.

Representatives of two major Chinese turbine manufacturers did not return phone calls or e-mails requesting comments.

So why do wind-farm developers in China mostly choose domestic turbines? It is a controversial subject. But the bidding process is a tricky business and many in the industry assume an opaque policy of favouritism, especially considering that most of the wind-farm developers and domestic turbine-makers are state-owned enterprises.

Turbine quality is one problem; finding the best turbine for the available wind is another. Every turbine has a 'load envelope' that defines roughly what wind speed, turbulence, wind shear and other conditions it will function best in.

Some turbines work better for wind that comes in short bursts whereas others work better with long consistent spells of low wind. Poorly chosen turbines will be more likely to break down.

A turbine with a wide blade can catch low winds but could be destroyed by typhoons. If turbines are poorly chosen for a site, their efficiency will plummet.

But until now, he says, Chinese developers have too often relied on inadequate wind data. China is now trying to address this problem.

By June, it will finish installing masts to measure wind-energy resources in various regions throughout China. The masts will stand 70 metres, metres or metres tall, to match the height of the turbines.

Yang will analyse the data provided by the masts. The plan has its sceptics. Because wind can vary greatly over short distances, even this survey of broad areas of wind flow will be inadequate and 'micrositing' data will still be necessary from the specific regions where the turbines are planned, says Soares.

More scepticism is aimed at a proposed secondary use of the data — to create new standards for turbine design specifically based on Chinese weather.

Given China's plans to make five huge mega-bases, the number of turbines in its future is staggering. By , the Gansu project alone will boast 10, turbines with a combined capacity of 12 gigawatts.

China's four other megabases — in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hebei and the Shanghai—Jiangsu region — will total 60 gigawatts.

But to make use of all that energy, China's wind hopefuls must tackle an even more intractable problem — the electricity grid.

China's energy supply has been hamstrung by a fragmented and underdeveloped grid system that makes it difficult to get energy from coal-rich rural areas to the cities on the east coast.

Wind has the same problem: it is produced mostly in sparsely populated regions that cannot use all that energy. The problem is compounded by the unreliability of a power source that is based on the weather.

It changes too fast," says Qin. Steve Sawyer, secretary-general of the Brussels-based Global Wind Energy Council, says that other countries, particularly the United States, have struggled with their grids.

China's rapid expansion has caused delays down the line. Turbines often have to sit idle — on average for four months — before they get hooked up to the grid.

The backlog is huge. Of the 5. Getting connected is just the first hurdle. Many grids are simply too puny to carry all the electricity being made.

At peak production times, turbines often have to shut down so as not to overload the electrical networks. Newer turbines can alter the angle of their blades to miss the wind, and will slow to a halt.

The only loss is the energy. For older turbines, the operator has to slam on the brakes. Turbines in China wear through their brakes at remarkable speeds, says Meyer.

Elsewhere, the brakes are usually used "once a month or less, but in China they're using it every four days", he says.

The delays and losses could drive people away from wind power, says Qin. So why hasn't the Chinese government's legendary ability to get things done kicked in.

According to a December report by New Energy Finance, China's National Development and Reform Commission — the body that oversees national economic and social development — is concerned about the "lack of supervision in China's rapid wind-power growth", especially when it comes to the grid.

But the government is afraid to do anything that would raise prices, says Zhang. The problem is low demand for the expensive energy. But the government hasn't brought itself to do that.

It's easier to let them stick with coal. Help might be on the way. The megabases have an economy of scale that will make them more attractive targets for grid developers.

Regional projects will also help. In November this year, Gansu will put 20 billion renminbi into its grid to support its megabase, and Inner Mongolia, also set to get a megabase, plans to add 30 billion renminbi to its grid operations by These will feed into a scheduled upgrade from kilovolts to kilovolts for a transmission line running from Xinjiang in the northwest, through Gansu, to the eastern metropolises.

Of course, hooking up wind turbines might not be the main thing on grid developers' minds. Wind energy is currently only a drop in the bucket in China's gigawatt energy supply.

In , wind accounted for just 0. But if the five megabases go as planned, their combined capacity would provide more electricity than the controversial Three Gorges dam, even considering the dam's much higher capacity factor.

Some estimates note a potential of — gigawatts by to For now, the Chinese government has thrown its considerable weight into exploiting this resource.

But unless some dramatic changes are made soon, China's plans for wind energy might get blown far off course. Keine Wetten ausgewählt!

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